The Investment Gap Behind the Next Commodity Cycle

Commodity markets entered 2026 with an unusual contradiction. Demand for energy, power infrastructure and critical materials continues to grow, yet investment in the supply needed to support that growth is losing momentum.

Wood Mackenzie expects global investment in energy and natural resources supply to decline by 4% in 2026, from a record US$1.63 trillion last year to US$1.58 trillion. For metals and mining, spending is expected to remain broadly flat at around US$170 billion.

On its own, a single year of weaker investment may not look particularly significant. But the more interesting question is what happens when restrained capital spending meets several new sources of commodity demand at the same time.

Copper Shows the Tension Most Clearly

Electrification continues to support demand, while supply disruptions are keeping the market tight. At the same time, AI and data-centre infrastructure are emerging as another reason for miners to direct capital toward the metal. This adds a new dimension to the copper story.

The energy transition already requires substantial volumes of copper for renewable generation, transmission networks, electric vehicles and broader electrification. AI infrastructure now adds another layer of physical demand through data centres, electricity generation and grid expansion.

In other words, two of the largest investment themes of the coming decade (electrification and artificial intelligence) increasingly depend on the same underlying material.

Supply Cannot React Overnight

The problem is that mining supply operates on a very different timeline from technology investment. A technology company can announce billions of dollars in new data-centre investment relatively quickly. New mining capacity cannot be added at the same speed. Projects require exploration, permitting, financing, construction and infrastructure before the first tonne of material reaches the market. That makes today’s investment decisions particularly important.

Wood Mackenzie expects metals and mining investment of around US$170 billion in 2026, still well below the US$214 billion reached in 2021. Trade uncertainty has reinforced capital discipline, even as the longer-term demand case for certain metals continues to strengthen.

The result is a familiar commodity-market problem: demand can accelerate long before supply is capable of responding.

Critical Minerals Are Becoming Strategic Assets

Governments are also becoming more active participants in this equation. Wood Mackenzie expects efforts to secure access to critical minerals and develop domestic supply chains to intensify in 2026. That changes the nature of competition for raw materials.

Critical minerals are no longer simply industrial inputs purchased on global markets. Increasingly, they are being viewed through the lens of supply security. Governments want greater control over where materials are mined, processed and ultimately consumed.

The same shift can already be seen in corporate strategy. Mining companies are maintaining capital discipline while simultaneously positioning themselves for future demand, with copper assets remaining a major focus for M&A.

The attraction is understandable. Developing a new mine can take years, while acquiring an existing high-quality asset provides immediate exposure to established production.

A Market Defined by Competing Priorities

What makes 2026 particularly interesting is that the forces shaping commodity markets are pulling in different directions. Short-term commodity weakness and geopolitical uncertainty encourage companies to remain cautious with capital. At the same time, electrification, AI infrastructure, expanding power demand and supply-security concerns all point toward greater long-term requirements for raw materials.

This tension may become one of the defining features of the next commodity cycle. The question is not simply whether the world has enough copper or other critical minerals in the ground. It is whether sufficient capital is being committed today to bring those resources into production when they are actually needed. For metals markets, that distinction matters. Demand can change quickly. Mining capacity cannot.

And if investment continues to lag while multiple industries compete for the same materials, the most important constraint on technological and energy expansion may ultimately be one of the oldest: securing enough physical resources to build it.

This article draws on analysis published by Wood Mackenzie, “Five themes shaping the energy world in 2026,” The Edge, January 8, 2026: https://www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-edge/five-themes-shaping-the-energy-world-2026/